On October 29, the BJP lost both Varanasi seats in the Uttar Pradesh legislative council elections to the Samajwadi Party (SP) despite nine ministers and seven MLAs campaigning in Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s Lok Sabha constituency. In Maharashtra’s Nagpur, home to the RSS headquarters, the Congress’s Abhijeet Wanjari retained the graduates’ seat by 3,271 votes.Yet, this was no rout.
Across 28 teachers’ and graduates’ seats in four states, the BJP won 13 on its own and the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) 16, down from 18. The Congress secured just one seat, in Nagpur, and lost all four in party-ruled Karnataka—a performance Modi made a point of mocking.
The verdict suggested neither an anti-BJP wave nor an Opposition revival. Instead, it exposed fault lines ahead of a much larger electoral test.Seven states, accounting for 940 assembly constituencies and 132 Lok Sabha seats, go to polls in 2027.
Uttar Pradesh, Punjab, Uttarakhand, Goa and Manipur are expected to vote first, in February-March. Gujarat and Himachal Pradesh follow towards the year’s end.
The BJP governs five of the seven states while the Congress holds Himachal Pradesh and the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) Punjab.The BJP alone holds 557 of the 940 assembly seats. Its allies hold another 47 while 12 Independents back the alliance, giving the NDA control of 616 seats—nearly two out of every three.
The Congress holds 98. AAP, which left the INDIA bloc in July 2025, has 101, nearly all in Punjab.
Uttar Pradesh and Gujarat alone account for 585 assembly seats and 106 Lok Sabha seats. Retaining both would significantly consolidate the BJP’s recovery from June 2024, when the Lok Sabha poll verdict reduced its tally to 240 seats and left the third Modi government dependent on allies Telugu Desam Party (TDP) and Janata Dal (United).
The seven assembly elections will, therefore, test the political authority of the government in Delhi and the credibility of its challengers ahead of the 2029 general election.Defeats would not threaten the Union government’s majority. For Modi, the larger question is whether the BJP has conclusively recovered from the setbacks of 2024.
Since then, the NDA has registered a sweeping victory in Bihar, retained Assam and wrested West Bengal from Mamata Banerjee. Holding its core territory would suggest that 2024 was an interruption rather than the beginning of a structural retreat.
From here on, losing major states, particularly Uttar Pradesh, would revive doubts about the party’s grip on its most important electoral geography.There is a constitutional dimension too. Newly elected MLAs will vote in the presidential election in July 2027.
Each Uttar Pradesh legislator’s vote carries a value of 208, the country’s highest. The state’s 403 seats, therefore, matter not only for who governs Lucknow but also for the electoral college that chooses the next president.
The results will also shape future Rajya Sabha arithmetic.In 2022, the BJP won 255 of Uttar Pradesh’s 403 assembly seats, the SP 111 and the Congress just two. Yogi Adityanath became the first chief minister of the state in 37 years to return to power after completing a full term.
The NDA now counts 292 MLAs on its side following the movement of the Rashtriya Lok Dal (RLD) and Suheldev Bharatiya Samaj Party (SBSP) from the SP camp. Four SP rebels have also cross-voted in favour of the alliance.A third consecutive victory would make Adityanath the first Uttar Pradesh chief minister since Independence to lead his party to three straight assembly poll wins.
It would also help reverse the political damage of 2024, when the BJP won just 33 of the state’s 80 Lok Sabha seats. Such a result would strengthen Adityanath’s position in eventual debates over the BJP’s post-Modi-Shah leadership.
His combination of Hindutva, assertive policing and welfare delivery would receive a renewed endorsement. A defeat or sharply reduced majority, on the other hand, would raise questions about Adityanath’s ability to hold together the BJP’s caste coalition.For SP chief Akhilesh Yadav, the stakes may be even higher.
Mamata’s defeat in West Bengal, the Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam’s (DMK) loss of power under M.K. Stalin in Tamil Nadu, the collapse of the Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) in Bihar and Uddhav Thackeray’s diminished position in Maharashtra have weakened several Opposition power centres.
That leaves Akhilesh as arguably the INDIA bloc’s most consequential regional leader. His PDA formula, built around Pichhda (backward), Dalit and Alpsankhyak (minority) voters, helped the SP win 37 Lok Sabha seats in 2024, four more than the BJP, with ally Congress adding another six.The immediate test is his partnership with Rahul Gandhi.
Seat-sharing negotiations in Uttar Pradesh have already exposed familiar strains. The Congress, with just two MLAs in the state, has reportedly sought around 170 seats while SP leaders have spoken of conceding 60 to 70.
Akhilesh launched his campaign from Rahul’s Lok Sabha constituency of Raebareli in September and maintains that seats will go to whichever party is best placed to win them.The Congress has national reach but little assembly-level organisation in Uttar Pradesh. Akhilesh has the stronger state machinery but needs Congress supporters to transfer their votes effectively.
Meanwhile, former SP allies, including the RLD and SBSP, have moved to the NDA while the Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) remains capable of influencing close contests by drawing Dalit votes. The challenge is to turn a social coalition that worked in a national election into one that can withstand constituency-level rivalries in a state contest.Punjab is the one state where the BJP is not a principal contender.
The ruling AAP won 92 of the 117 seats in 2022, giving the party a governing base beyond Delhi. After losing power in the national capital, retaining Punjab has become central to the party’s political relevance.
Punjab chief minister Bhagwant Mann faces scrutiny over drugs, employment, debt, law and order, agrarian distress and religious controversies. Yet, AAP’s performance in recent bypolls and municipal elections suggests that its organisational strength remains intact.
Having won six of the seven assembly bypolls since 2022, it now holds 95 seats while the Congress has slipped from 18 to 16.The Congress, which won seven of Punjab’s 13 Lok Sabha seats in 2024, sees an opening but remains divided by leadership feuds. The Shiromani Akali Dal (SAD) is diminished while Amritpal Singh’s new Panthic formation could further fragment the Sikh political space.
Renewed talks of a BJP-Akali alliance add another variable. Whether the two reunite could influence how the anti-AAP vote is divided.
A Congress victory would revive its northern base while another AAP term would demonstrate the party’s ability to survive and remain relevant beyond Delhi.Uttarakhand gave the BJP 47 of its 70 assembly seats in 2022, breaking the state’s tradition of alternating governments, even though chief minister Pushkar Singh Dhami lost his own Khatima seat. The Congress has since won Badrinath, after its MLA defected to the BJP, and Manglaur, raising its tally from 19 to 20.
Employment, migration from the hills, environmental pressures and the Uniform Civil Code are likely to shape the campaign. A change of government would demonstrate that even the BJP’s formidable organisation cannot indefinitely neutralise local discontent.
Retention would deepen the Congress’s long-term decline in another northern state, reinforcing a pattern already visible in Uttar Pradesh, Bihar and West Bengal.In Goa, where the BJP has governed since 2012, the Congress faces a different handicap. The BJP won 20 of the 40 seats in 2022 and subsequently absorbed eight of the Congress’s 11 MLAs.
The resulting three-member Congress legislature is a reminder that winning an election and retaining elected representatives are two separate challenges. Tourism-led development, land use and employment provide potential grounds for scrutiny of the Pramod Sawant government.
With AAP, Goa Forward Party and regional parties also in contention, Opposition coordination may prove as important as anti-incumbency.Manipur is no ordinary incumbency contest. More than 250 people have died and tens of thousands have been displaced since ethnic violence erupted in May 2023.
The BJP won 32 of the 60 assembly seats in 2022, but the Congress swept both Lok Sabha constituencies two years later. N.
Biren Singh’s departure as chief minister, nearly a year of president’s rule and Yumnam Khemchand Singh’s appointment as chief minister in February 2026, alongside Kuki-Zo and Naga deputy chief ministers, were attempts to reset the government. Yet, none has resolved the underlying crisis.Manipur’s valley and hill constituencies remain divided over security, territory and autonomy.
Kuki-Zo demands for a separate administration persist while trust between communities remains fragile. For the BJP, electoral survival without reconciliation would offer only limited vindication.
For the Congress, the challenge is to convert anger over the conflict into a credible electoral alternative, with candidates and alliances capable of appealing to sharply divided communities. The verdict will also be read as a judgment on the Centre’s handling of the crisis.The 2027-end elections will complete the political picture.
Gujarat, the home state of Modi and Amit Shah, has been governed by the BJP since 1995. Its record 156-seat victory in 2022, subsequent expansion through defections and sweep of all 15 municipal corporations in April have left the Congress struggling to defend its position against both the BJP and AAP.
Employment, farmers’ concerns and local grievances offer possible avenues to challenge an otherwise deeply entrenched ruling party.Himachal Pradesh presents the opposite challenge. The Congress won 40 of the 68 seats in 2022 and survived a rebellion, but chief minister Sukhvinder Singh Sukhu faces mounting fiscal pressures in a state that has not re-elected an incumbent government since 1985.
Yet, after six Congress MLAs were disqualified for cross-voting in the February 2024 Rajya Sabha election, the party won six of the nine subsequent bypolls, restoring the assembly balance to 40-28. Retaining Himachal would demonstrate the Congress’s ability to defend incumbency at a time when it is struggling to expand its electoral footprint elsewhere.Beneath these contests runs another political current, driven by generational discontent.
The Cockroach Janta Party (CJP) has emerged as a vehicle for youth mobilisation over examination irregularities, unemployment and institutional accountability. The NEET-UG crisis and protests at Delhi’s Jantar Mantar preceded Union education minister Dharmendra Pradhan’s resignation in July.
The CJP, which is not a registered electoral party, has since joined protests over the Special Intensive Revision (SIR) of voter rolls. Its political significance lies in whether disillusioned students and job aspirants influence voter turnout and electoral choices, and whether established parties can respond credibly to their grievances.These verdicts will not elect the next prime minister.
But they will help define the terms of that contest. For the BJP, the central test is whether prolonged incumbency can coexist with continued political dominance.
For the Opposition, it is whether Akhilesh, Rahul, the Congress and other challengers can turn scattered discontent into organisational strength and coherent alliances. For the emerging youth movement, it is whether anger can survive the journey from the street to the ballot box.
In that sense, the first votes of 2027 could help define the politics of 2029.Subscribe to India Today Magazine- Ends